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00:00:00 – 00:18:08
The speaker recounts their experience presenting at a TED event, humorously noting the challenges faced and the insights gained from other speakers, particularly concerning the rapid pace of societal change. Using W.B. Yeats' poem "The Second Coming," the speaker contrasts the foresight of poets with the misguided optimism of early 20th-century economists who underestimated political turmoil and the rise of totalitarian leaders. Highlighting the limitations of conventional thinking, the speaker champions the value of diverse intelligences and the unconventional insights of artists, emphasizing their potential to address contemporary crises. Through anecdotes and humor, the speaker critiques the overconfidence of academics and experts, exemplified by the Dunning-Kruger effect, and concludes by advocating for greater engagement with creative minds to uncover deeper understandings and solutions to societal issues.
00:00:00
In this segment of the video, the speaker discusses their initial plan to present early at a TED event, relax, and then absorb ideas from other speakers. However, they were asked to present last instead, which made them recall Mike Tyson’s quote about plans changing after a punch in the face. The speaker humorously notes that the challenge is not the pressure but the sobriety. They reflect on the remarkable speeches heard, highlighting themes around the pace of change affecting various aspects of society. They humorously address the tools typically used by economists and contrast them with their approach as an Irish economist, involving poetry. They introduce a poem, “The Second Coming” by W.B. Yeats, to explore the notion of crisis.
00:03:00
In this part of the video, the speaker discusses the notion that every generation views its crisis as the most significant. Using 1919 as an example, the speaker explains how historical crises were dealt with, specifically citing the collapse of the German, Austrian, and Ottoman Empires and Ireland’s war of independence. The focus shifts to the poet W.B. Yeats, who, in his poem “The Second Coming,” predicted societal disintegration and the rise of dangerous leaders. The speaker contrasts Yeats’ foresight with the misplaced optimism of economists from that era, who believed things would return to normalcy with the reinstatement of the gold standard and the resumption of trade, underestimating the turmoil and the rise of figures like Mussolini, Stalin, and Hitler.
00:06:00
In this part of the video, the speaker discusses the contrast between how poets and economists perceive critical moments in history. The speaker suggests that poets, artists, and musicians allow themselves to think unconventionally, which gives them unique insights, while conventional thinking often limits others. The speaker challenges listeners to think back to their school days, noting that traditional education systems tend to recognize and reward only one type of intelligence—the ability to memorize and regurgitate information. This focus often marginalizes those with different forms of intelligence, causing many individuals to leave school feeling undervalued and unintelligent. He emphasizes the need to recognize and value diverse intelligences to avoid undermining the potential of many talented individuals.
00:09:00
In this part of the video, the speaker humorously describes the trajectory of academically successful individuals in Ireland. These individuals excel in school, supported by praise from teachers, priests, nuns, and particularly ambitious Irish mothers. They perform well in college and enter prestigious graduate programs, quickly advancing in careers at top firms, banks, and consultancies. However, they often fall into a trap of confirmation bias, surrounding themselves with like-minded individuals, which leads to groupthink and overconfidence. The speaker references the Dunning-Kruger effect, illustrating how overconfident people can overestimate their abilities, using a humorous anecdote about a bank robber in the 1990s.
00:12:00
In this segment of the video, a humorous story is shared about a man who robs a bank without any disguise, believing he is invisible because he covered his face with lemon juice, recalling the folly of overconfidence. The tale illustrates the Dunning-Kruger effect, where individuals with low ability at a task overestimate their competence. The speaker connects this psychological phenomenon to broader societal issues, including the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting how overconfidence among experts led to disastrous oversight. The Queen of England humorously criticized economists for their failure, suggesting they were blinded by their own form of “invisibility,” paralleling the bank robber’s absurd belief.
00:15:00
In this part of the video, the speaker underscores the importance of recognizing and exploring imperfections as gateways to broader understanding, invoking Leonard Cohen’s idea that “there is a crack in everything” which allows insight to penetrate. The speaker then draws parallels with W.B. Yeats’ poem “The Second Coming,” emphasizing the dangers of apathy and the consequences of allowing those with extreme convictions to dominate. The message advocates for the engagement of creative minds like poets, artists, and musicians in addressing societal issues, arguing that their unique perspectives can reveal crucial possibilities and solutions that others might miss. The key takeaway is to seek insights from creative fields rather than relying solely on conventional disciplines like economics.