This summary of the video was created by an AI. It might contain some inaccuracies.
00:00:00 – 00:26:31
Brent Simon discusses the anticipation and preparations for the new year, specifically concerning the release of CEAC (Consular Electronic Application Center) data for Diversity Visa (DV) selectees, which will be critical in understanding and predicting case progress and visa issuances. Anticipated new data access faces challenges due to recent changes in government servers. Two key contributors, Zartheism and Frank, play a notable role in scraping this vital data, which helps in evaluating the status and distribution of cases.
Predictions for 2023 include maximum case numbers for regions—AF, AS, EU, Oceana, and South America—calculated using past data and density factors. Insight into performance metrics and data processing from DV 2021 illustrates the concept of case number "holes," where many cases are disqualified, impacting overall processing. Significant disqualifications among the initial 1,000 cases highlight the occurrence of fraudulent or duplicate entries.
A detailed discussion focuses on the distribution of selectees, particularly from Nepal and Iran, and the resulting impact on visa processing. A phenomenon where certain case numbers are concentrated while others are disqualified to manage workload distribution is highlighted, with implications for regional processing patterns. Country-specific caps, particularly how regions like Asia and Africa are affected by limitations, create variations in issuance and case "holes."
Oceana and South America experience different patterns due to fewer country-specific cutoffs and more even entry distributions. The concept of "except countries," exemplified by Nepal, underscores the necessity of managing high concentrations of early case numbers via methods that evenly distribute the workload throughout the year. Data collection challenges due to governmental restrictions are addressed, with mentions of automated data gathering programs and the potential benefits of government API access.
Finally, as the government portal for checking immigrant case numbers becomes available, there is optimism about the data’s utility and accessibility, given the efforts of contributors. This information will be pivotal for further analysis and predictions in the Diversity Visa process.
00:00:00
In this part of the video, Brent Simon talks about the anticipation for the new year, specifically 2023, and wishes everyone a great New Year, hoping it will be the year they get their green cards. He discusses the excitement around accessing the CEAC data for the current Diversity Visa (DV) year, which will be available for the first time the next day. Brent explains that changes to government servers have made collecting this data more difficult and might delay daily refreshes. He mentions how two people, Zartheism and Frank, help scrape this data, which provides vital information about the progress and status of cases. Brent also highlights that the CEAC data will help in making predictions and understanding case numbers, which he has been unable to accurately predict due to insufficient data up to this point. He plans to explain more about the CEAC data and what it can reveal, particularly regarding the highest case numbers in each region given to selectees.
00:03:00
In this segment, the speaker shares their predictions for the maximum number of cases in various regions: AF (82,000), AS (31,000), EU (36,000), Oceana (2,600), and South America (4,200). They clarify these are estimates based on mathematical calculations involving previous years’ data and density factors, and they might be inaccurate. The next day, real highest case numbers and distribution densities will be revealed. The significance of knowing case numbers ahead of one’s own is explained, as it affects the order of processing. Additionally, the speaker mentions they’ll provide more details about case densities, draw cutoffs using past data, and the progress of visa issuances and interview schedules for the months of October, November, and December.
00:06:00
In this part of the video, the speaker discusses performance metrics and data processing rates, focusing on the first three months of progress. They present and explain data from the DV 2021 lottery, using it as a case study to illustrate the impact of country cutoffs. The speaker highlights that this example year is clean and straightforward, making it easier to explain certain concepts.
Key points include a breakdown of case numbers for Asia, divided into 1,000-case increments, reaching up to over 37,000 for that year. The speaker highlights a significant number of “holes,” or case numbers without attached cases, which occur due to disqualifications by the government for various reasons, including duplicate or fraudulent entries. Approximately 40% of the first 1,000 case numbers in that year were disqualified. This provides insight into how disqualifications impact the overall numbers and the processing of cases.
00:09:00
In this part of the video, the speaker discusses the disqualification of the first 1000 cases and their impact. Despite being selected, these cases were marked as “not selected,” leaving applicants unaware. The segment further explains the concept of “holes” in case numbers, particularly in the Asian region for the DV 2021 visa lottery. The speaker elaborates on the density of cases per thousand, noting significant variations. For instance, there were approximately 600 cases in the first thousand but only 370 cases in the 12,000-to-13,000 range. They highlight three blocks of holes, with holes increasing significantly from about 40% to 80%. The varying density and concentration of cases are primarily attributed to differences in the number of entries from specific countries, such as Nepal and Iran.
00:12:00
In this segment of the video, the speaker discusses the allocation of visa selectees from different countries, specifically focusing on Nepal and Iran versus the rest of Asia. They explain that the distribution would ideally be proportional based on the number of applicants, but practical limitations mean that Nepal and Iran often get their cases concentrated within an initial range. For instance, by case number 10,000, further cases from Nepal are disqualified to prevent an excessive number of cases from overwhelming the process. This results in 3,800 selectees from Nepal and 6,000 from Iran for the year discussed, reflecting different average numbers of derivatives per case. Graphics provided in the video illustrate these proportions, and viewers are directed to a website for additional charts and data from various years and regions.
00:15:00
In this part of the video, the speaker discusses analyzing data from various years, focusing on country-specific caps in regions like Asia and Africa. The speaker explains how Iran and Nepal met their country caps around the same time in 2022, resulting in a significant drop-off in visa issuances. This pattern is also observed in other years and regions, with some variations, such as a higher number of case “holes” in later numbers due to countries reaching their caps. The speaker also mentions that unlike Africa and Europe, regions like Oceania and South America don’t experience country cut-offs as frequently due to a more even distribution of entries among participating countries.
00:18:00
In this segment, the speaker discusses the distribution and patterns of visa case numbers for different regions, particularly focusing on Oceana and South America. They highlight that these regions have many disqualified cases or “holes” before the announcement of results. The highest case number in Oceana for DV 2021 was approximately 33,3400, and similar patterns are expected to continue. The speaker also explains the concept of ‘except countries,’ using Nepal as an example, where a large number of cases are concentrated in the early case numbers and processed mainly in Kathmandu. This creates a need for an ‘except number’ to distribute the workload more evenly throughout the year. This methodology applies to other countries with high case concentrations, like Algeria, Egypt, and Iran. They indicate that more detailed data and specific embassy progress will be reviewed later.
00:21:00
In this segment of the video, the speaker explains the workload distribution among embassies, aiming to clarify why certain workload patterns exist. They anticipate sharing more data tomorrow and discuss the challenges of data collection due to governmental restrictions. They mention a person named Our Theseus, who uses a computer program to automatically gather public data from the government site CX date dot gov. This method, while labor-intensive, is necessary because the data is publicly available yet not easily accessible in bulk. The speaker mentions the possibility of easier data access if the government provided APIs.
00:24:00
In this segment of the video, the speaker explains that the government program for checking immigrant case numbers will become accessible at midnight on January 1st, mountain time. Although the data is already in the system, it remains unavailable for checking until the new year begins. The speaker mentions that the data should be accessible without issues and acknowledges the work done by Southeast to mitigate any government-imposed problems. The speaker expresses optimism about the data’s availability and usefulness, thanks the contributors, and looks forward to analyzing the data once it becomes accessible.