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00:00:00 – 00:59:31
The video features Sean Trell, a distinguished economist, discussing his book "An Unlikely Prison: How an Eternal Optimist Found Hope in Myanmar's Most Notorious Jail." The talk begins with his involvement in Myanmar’s economy during Aung San Suu Kyi’s administration and the systemic economic issues he encountered. Trell highlights challenges with Myanmar's crony capitalism and military dominance over economic resources, emphasizing how foundational reforms aimed to address these, though they faced significant obstacles and criticisms.
The conversation also delves into the political and economic landscape before Myanmar's 2021 coup, detailing the impacts of ongoing reforms and the aftermath of the coup, including Trell's personal arrest and harrowing experiences in confinement. He describes the surreal and irrational accusations, his coping mechanisms during isolation, and the widespread international efforts to support him, involving figures like the Australian and Vietnamese prime ministers, Mitch McConnell, and Prince Charles.
Despite the harsh conditions, Trell credits external and familial support for his endurance and expresses a lasting commitment to Myanmar. He stresses the importance of maintaining international visibility for Myanmar's plight and highlighting its youth's potential. Trell also reflects on Myanmar's current turbulent state, the regime's unsustainable economic strategies, and draws attention to the dire need for reforms focused on dismantling the military's economic apparatus under a democratic rule. The video concludes with a call for global awareness and support for those affected by Myanmar's crisis, stressing the need for systemic reforms and ongoing engagement.
00:00:00
In this part of the video, Sean Trell, an eminent economist, joins a book talk to discuss his new book titled “An Unlikely Prison: How an Eternal Optimist Found Hope in Myanmar’s Most Notorious Jail.” Sean, a renowned economist and former deputy director of the economics program at CSIS, had significant involvement in Myanmar. He initially got involved in Myanmar through connections made during his Ph.D. studies and ultimately became close to Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s former State Counselor, and her administration.
Sean elaborates on how he was invited by Aung San Suu Kyi to assist in Myanmar following the National League for Democracy’s landslide victory in the 2015 elections. He details the dire economic situation he encountered upon joining the administration, mentioning that while there had been some economic reforms, many foundational financial issues remained unaddressed. The discussion promises to delve into various topics from his book and recent updates on Myanmar, with a Q&A session planned for the latter part of the talk.
00:05:00
In this segment of the video, the discussion focuses on the importance of economic foundations, particularly in relation to trust and property rights. Despite significant reforms in the telecommunications sector, substantial challenges remained, particularly due to the lasting elements of the old socialist economy. Key issues included addressing the dominance of the military in economic resource allocation and dealing with fiscal and monetary challenges.
The concept of a patronage system and cronyism in Myanmar’s economy is also explored. Unlike typical competitive private sector entities, these crony enterprises were deeply intertwined with the state, often existing to extract rents through exclusive licenses and monopolistic practices. This set-up is labeled as “crony capitalism” but is more akin to privatized state socialism. The control exerted by these enterprises rendered traditional economic measures misleading and complicated reform efforts, particularly since these entities were more concerned with preserving the existing economic pie rather than expanding it through export markets, differentiating Myanmar’s situation from other Southeast Asian economies.
00:10:00
In this segment, the discussion revolves around the political and economic landscape in Myanmar before the coup. The speaker corrects an earlier mistake about the timing of elections, explaining the 2015 election, and the subsequent 2020 election which saw allegations of fraud similar to the U.S. The speaker reflects on a decade of relative openness and reforms under previous governance, highlighting significant changes that allowed for more personal and economic freedoms, despite ongoing issues in certain regions.
Key reforms included reducing government intervention in the economy, particularly by cutting down state financing through money printing, which was monitored in agreement with the IMF. This was aimed at reducing the budget deficit and diminishing the state’s dominant role in the economy, thereby fostering private sector growth. Specific progress areas included the banking and insurance sectors, which saw increased foreign involvement and contributed to funding investments and startups. The speaker emphasizes these reforms’ importance, despite them not always being visible or headline-grabbing.
00:15:00
In this part of the video, the speaker discusses the challenges and criticisms faced while implementing government spending cuts during their first term. They had been working on foundational reforms with the hope of accelerating these efforts in a second term. However, just before the plan could be presented on February 4, 2021, a coup occurred in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, leading to widespread government arrests, including the speaker’s own arrest on February 6, 2021. The speaker describes attempting to leave the country amid the chaos, confronting evacuation difficulties due to COVID-19, and ultimately being arrested while in their hotel. They recount specific details about their arrest, interactions with embassy officials, and the surreal nature of the experience.
00:20:00
In this part of the video, the speaker recounts a live broadcast incident that upset the police, leading to their arrest and detention in a poor state, reminiscent of movie interrogation scenes aimed at intimidation. They discuss facing mild physical abuse compared to the severe torture others endured, expressing shock as a mild-mannered professor. The speaker highlights the irrationality and xenophobia they experienced, particularly how economic reforms were misinterpreted as foreign interference, and mentions unfounded accusations of being an MI6 spy. The speaker also shares their distress over being used to target others, including prominent figures, and explains that rational explanations and honesty often exacerbated their situation. They detail how some interrogators advised them to keep answers short, illustrating the irrational nature of the accusations with an example involving a document marked “confidential.”
00:25:00
In this part of the video, the speaker discusses the ordeal he faced involving document confiscation from his computer and being accused of spying. Despite his efforts to delete sensitive documents, he was warned that data on a hard drive is always recoverable. During his trial, manipulated documents marked as “top secret” were presented as evidence against him. He reflects on an especially absurd incident where he was accused of possessing and reading a document he himself had written and labeled as confidential. Additionally, he touches on the harshness of his imprisonment in Myanmar, including solitary confinement and the psychological toll. Despite this, he credits external support and awareness of efforts made on his behalf for helping him endure the situation.
00:30:00
In this part of the video, the speaker reflects on how he coped with isolation in confinement. He describes engaging in basic, repetitive activities such as walking and counting to avoid overthinking, as he knew he couldn’t think his way out of the situation. He humorously notes that despite being associated with intelligence agencies, he couldn’t escape like a fictional spy. To pass the time, he also played memory games, such as listing U.S. presidents and states, which later helped sharpen his mind. Books, once available, became a critical escape and mental stimulation. The speaker acknowledges the profound support from his wife, daughter, and the diplomatic community, which was vital for his morale and eventual release.
00:35:00
In this part of the video, the speaker describes the active efforts made by influential figures, including the Australian and Vietnamese prime ministers, American authorities like Mitch McConnell, and even Prince Charles, to provide support. Additionally, personal support was provided through baked goods sent via diplomatic channels, despite regulations against such practices. The US government, particularly the Treasury and State Department, along with politicians and staff, played a significant role in the efforts. Unexpected support even came from various prisoners, both political and criminal. The speaker expresses gratitude for the widespread assistance received and reflects on their future involvement with Myanmar, indicating a mix of resignation and continued engagement motivated by a sense of love for the country.
00:40:00
In this part of the video, the speaker expresses admiration and a deep sense of appreciation for the people of Myanmar, acknowledging their courage and compassion. They emphasize their desire to support Myanmar despite acknowledging that their official role has ended. The speaker highlights the capabilities of Myanmar’s youth, particularly the young economists, and stresses that it is ultimately the journey of the Myanmar people. There is a focus on keeping Myanmar’s issues visible internationally to ensure the country receives necessary support. The discussion then shifts to the broader theme of post-crisis reconstruction efforts, comparing the global response to Ukraine with the lack of similar plans for Myanmar. The speaker also mentions recent significant developments in Myanmar, including counter-offensives by ethnic armed organizations and the rise of people’s defense forces, indicating that the situation remains dynamic and hopeful despite the challenges.
00:45:00
In this part of the video, the speaker discusses the current state of a regime that appears to be struggling significantly, highlighting its desperate attempts to secure resources to fund the military. The speaker notes that the regime’s economic strategies are primarily focused on resource extraction without any sustainable economic plans. There is a sentiment that, if this regime were to be removed, a quick recovery could occur based on existing, well-prepared plans.
The discussion then shifts to the speaker’s personal experience in prison. They describe the poor quality of food, which was served in communal buckets with the best parts sold on the black market, leaving only bones, oil, and improperly cooked rice. The conditions led to disease due to the unhygienic communal eating methods. The speaker also touches on the harsh sleeping conditions, where lights were kept on continuously, making sleep difficult. They dealt with prison life by using a makeshift sleep mask and becoming accustomed to the constant presence of bugs, rats, and scorpions.
00:50:00
In this part of the video, the speaker discusses the difficulties of dealing with ants while in a challenging environment and their evolving perspective on ants. The conversation shifts to advice on supporting people affected by the situation in Myanmar, highlighting the need for raising awareness, involving governments, and providing legal assistance for asylum seekers. The speaker shares personal experiences of working with law firms on asylum cases and stresses the importance of expert testimony. Additionally, the speaker reflects on past economic policy decisions in Myanmar, identifying communication failures and the need for public sector reforms as key areas for improvement. They suggest that Myanmar’s top economic priority should be addressing the military state apparatus under a democratic government.
00:55:00
In this segment of the video, the speaker discusses seeing Sansui over a year ago, noting she is held in poor conditions in Napor prison, with limited access to outside communication, and expresses significant concern for her wellbeing given her isolation and the regime’s strategy. The discussion moves to the state of Myanmar’s local currency, with the speaker highlighting its steep devaluation and the population’s preference for foreign currencies. The introduction of a new banknote is mentioned as indicative of the severe lack of trust in the national currency. The session concludes with appreciations for the support received and well-wishes for the speaker, expressing optimism about human nature despite past experiences.